JAMONOMICS

So i was doing some research and i came up on some studies that Capri has done on Jamaica's debt and realized some very interesting things. some of which a lot of people don't know, including my public sector teacher (who is from the states). Capri also ran some tests to test some scenarios to see the result if we were to choose certain paths to deal with the debt problem. I will outline what they were basically sating. One thing that i finally realized was that our central government spending is actually much less than our revenues. Much much less! Therefore the focus on Public Sector wages is somewhat misguided and quiet frankly a scapegoat in the whole situation.

First of all it was don't in October 2008, and as we know a LOT has changed since then, but i still think it is relevant in deciding what we should do. Indeed some of the recommendations may be even more urgent than ever.

Scenarios and outcomes:

1. Do nothing - if Jamaica was to do nothing our debt/GDP ratio will drop bellow 100 in 13 years and we get a balanced budget it 8 years.

2. If we borrow only from foreign rather than domestic sources (doubled foreign debt ratio) - balanced budget in 8 years.

3. If we only borrowed from multilateral at much cheaper interest rates - debt/GDP ratio equals in 12 years and reach balanced budget in 7 years

4. If we stopped absorbing debt from non-central gov organizations (Air J, JUTC, Sugar Companies etc.) - 10 years to debt/GDP ratio is equal, 6 years to balanced budget.

5. If we increased tax revenue by 3% - Debt/GDP ratio met in 9 years, and balanced budget in 4 years.

6. If we had constant 3% growth - balanced budget in four years.

So it see, the debt problem is solved not through stifling public sector wages, regardless of how inefficient they are, but rather through cutting off some unprofitable entities. More obviously we need economic growth, or increased revenues by at least 3% to bring the debt/GDP ratio below 100% in less than 10 years.

Capri presentation*

It's something no one really wants to talk about, because we are all guilty. The Riverton Dump services the metropolitan area of Kingston and Spanish Town and is quickly becoming a scathing embarrassment. But while some may scoff at those who derive a livelihood from scavenging through the trash we leave behind, we should really be looking at ourselves.

There was a time long ago when we didn't have to pay these things much attention, but today the world is different. the dump is a breeding ground for diseases and because of the inadequacies of disposing of medical garbage, it serves as a facilitator of the transmission of STD's. Unfortunately, the general public is not really aware of what happens at the dump and just how sad the situation is for the poorest of the poor.

The dump also negatively affects corporate Jamaica. With the frequent occurrences of spontaneous combustion which results in fires that last days on end, businesses are unable to remain open due to heavy smoke.

While plans to develop the dump have been on the table, so far i have not seen any indication that the dump has been upgraded as planned.

In line with environmental aims of the OYW 2010 summit that I was a part, the Jamaican Ambassadors have decided to tackle the problem of the Riverton City dump and try to raise awareness and mobilize an effort that will lead to some solutions.

I will make sure to keep you all posted!

Spotlight on the UN CSD Youth Caucus



Should youth be involved in the UN or focus on other global decision-making arenas? What has more impact?

Jamaica Gleaner News - Fitch upgrades Jamaica ratings to 'B-' - Lead Stories - Wednesday | February 17, 2010

Is the new JLP economic reforms really having an effect?
Despite these developments, Jamaica just went through at least 12 quarters of negative growth in GDP.
The loan which was given to us by the IMF really doesn't do much a part form stay in the BOJ, so what is the plan?

After all is said and done, what now? That is the question facing the over 800 delegates that attended the inaugural One Young World Summit in London last week. The euphoria that filled the air evolved over two days into an epiphenomenal sense of meaning and purposeful action to create change consumed everyone. But now that it is done, can we really make a difference?

Yes we can, through spreading the word to as many people as possible! Knowledge has power to change actions and people. We must force each other to do the right thing through enlightening each other of what the right choices are. We can take civil action through writing to MP’s and the newspaper. And we can get our friends involved. So be the change my friends!

I invite you all to visit these sites and find a way that you can help make a difference, feed a starving person, or reduce global warming. It starts with YOU and ME!

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An IMF deal in the making, there had to be some changes. Yesterday night the Jamaican Minister of Finance announced a broadening of the Tax base to include items such as female sanitary napkins, sugar, corned beef and bread. The excuse is basically that they need more revenue o pay back there debt as well as run the government. At the same time the government has been undertaking a public sector cut programme that will identify and see the realization of possible savings in the government apparatus.

There is no denying that some amount of inequity has been reached. The tax exempted items had always been those that the poorest of society need to maintain some amount of decent living. The position of this government seems to be a more 'progressive' type of taxation which no doubt will be easier to collect and will almost definitely raise government revenue, but how will this affect the poor, and who's idea was this anyway?

Of course we need not look any further than Washington to realize where all of this is coming from. The IMF negotiations have been going on for well over 6 months, but not a word has been said about the conditions. Definitely, the broadening of the tax threshold to include the items most needed by the poor is as a result of IMF conditionality, and we certainly would not be getting any 1.2 billion dollars if it were not done. The government acts as though they have no idea what the IMF wants, however there is the Article IV Consultation reports that came out in June 2008, which outlines basically everything the IMF thinks the government should do. There is no hit and miss in these negotiations, we know what they want and Shaw is giving it to them.

So what did we expect? As long as Jamaicans continue to live in the cloud of ignorance as we currently do, these things will continue to occur and take us by surprise. The information is there, we must hold our government more accountable by equipping ourselves with knowledge.

O yeah, and all now there is no talk of how we plan to pay this money back.

Orane concerned global crisis blowing Caricom off course - JamaicaObserver.com

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